Justice, People, Nature

STEADFASTNESS

Thu, 18 Apr 2019 15:31:36 -0400

(Picture: https://ryver.com/the-power-of-persistence-perseverance-and-tenacity-for-the-entrepreneur/)
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Today is one of those days that are more than ordinary. I want to capture and conserve the moment as the memory and emotions are still vivid and fresh, before the impending and merciless passage of time buries them into oblivion. Looking back into writings is a wonderful glimpse in the past.

Why Steadfastness? Because of a personal success of today. It is a colossal personal victory that has an enormous impact and importance for me. Today is the day I passed the exam to obtain what is called “legal capacity” in Bulgaria. In most countries, this means that you are a certified legal professional, with the right to practice. In essence, a lawyer. How did I get here?

In brief, starting in November 2017, to obtain it, I had to:

- translate all my diplomas and transcripts from my education

- apply to a State institution to recognise them

- appeal against their decision (twice), as I was initially asked to do 10 exams and three State exams. State exams are particularly onerous, essentially bringing you back to year 1, as if you never studied law. I appealed them. Successfully.

- I was tasked to only take 7 (eventually 9) quite voluminous exams of Bulgarian law. I did that in about 1.5-2 months in total. Each exam is linked to further individual administration and filings.

- Then a 6-months “internship” in the Ministry of Justice, with numerous visits to about 10 different institutions (prosecution, notaries, civil courts, criminal courts, etc.)

- And today, 18.04.2019, the final exam before I could call myself a “lawyer” in the Republic of Bulgaria.

I remember well how all the above looked back in November 2017 –inconceivable. So much was ahead. Each individual step above cost amounts of effort, time, energy and focus hard to explain, certainly not in a brief blogpost. Those who are more familiar with Bulgaria’s systems (administration, education), would know enough to grasp the intensity of the “exercise”. There were moments of despair, humiliations (some of the examiners didn’t miss the chance to do that), and hundreds of hours of endless studies. Yet, I never stopped or gave up.

While this is obviously a story directly and almost unhumbly linked to my personal life, I want to emphasise something outside my very own prism.

It is the perseverance.

I have lived (yet again) the blunt truth that, if you have a goal and if you work for it, it shall ultimately come true. I don’t want it to sound like a cheesy US film of “you can make your (American? 😊) dream come true!”, or “ you can do it”. It is more about the silent steadfastness of simply going ahead. Time flies. If you keep a direction, in small steps taken – the destination will eventually, and inevitably, be reached.

Today is a day of rejoice for me, of utter satisfaction, deserved and hard-earned. The rightful ending of the bumpiest possible journey. Objectively, it is simply a document - I am a lawyer. Subjectively, it is my own victory. Yet another life lesson.

Be consistent, be persistent. Persevere and carry on in the direction you choose.

Thank you for your time :)

2019 Yearly goals

Thu, 07 Mar 2019 06:22:13 -0500

2018 was an intense year of my life. I had taken quite a few tasks upon myself, being busy with various simultaneous undertakings. The major focus last year was consolidation and stabilisation of existing and ongoing projects. I believe it was mostly a successful years, with however some notable lackings in certain areas.

It is still not too late for putting down in writing what my yearly goals for this 2019 will be:

Improvement of existing assets. I am currently in possession or using a fair amount of physical assets (e.g. apartment I live, the car I drive, the olive plantation). Some of them are in deteriorating state and need addressing. I’d like to:

make some repair works in the apartment I live
make the car I drive look more representative and do some long-postponed repairs.
Improve the olive plantation: fully utilise the plot I currently own and plant it full with olive trees. Considering even to buy the neighbouring plots, if opportunity arises. I also would like to make a sustainable installation of a water system, as no serious agriculture could be conducted without a water source.
Make improvements on the second home we are trying to build for quite some time

Generally, this goal is to address the state of the physical objects around me and ensure that they are maintained and pushed forward, rather than left to decay under the merciless toll of time.

Having more time for the unplanned. I notice that, as live evolves and we grow, we try to have more and more stuff organised, planned, and set-in-stone well in advance. There is a lot of value in this. However, I feel I am slowly losing the balance – I start to have absolutely everything planned months and almost years in advance. Spontaneousness could be a bliss, especially if it is matched up with the right people. Start small first, that’d be a great beginning.

Internet-free Sundays: My phone – my addiction. Many of us are so used to stare at the screen without any good reason. I plan to switch off my internet on the phone more often, and on Sundays – have myself free of internet. That doesn’t mean I disappear – will be reachable on my mobile, but no internet will be switched on. I will try to do it once a week.

Sports: In 2018 I did well on the sports front. I would like to continue this tradition onwards – volleyball, football, table tennis, I want to start a new sport – tennis. Cycling form time to time is also in my plans.

Piano: Last year I learned almost 2 entire pieces. This year I’d like to learn at least one, possibly two. Time is particularly limited, so I’d rather exceed my goal, than fail.

Saving money: I’d like to be saving money on the side, or invest them in certain instruments. I have a sum in my head, see if I manage to get close to it this time round.

Read: Reading appears to be quite a challenge, especially with time constraints. I’d like to read 3 pages per day on average, or almost a thousand by the end of 2019.

Travel: Travelling is a great activity of changing environment, but it can also be draining and distracting. I’d like this year travels to be more of holidays and relaxation, and not to over-stuff my year with travels. Challenging, I know. But travelling, for as marvellous as it is an activity, is a double-edged sword

Thanks for your the time! Have you thought about your goals? :)

2018 Goals overview

Tue, 19 Feb 2019 12:47:21 -0500

It is that time of the year again that we sit down and reconsider how we performed (or not 😊) in the past 2018. Verba volant, scripta manent. So again, I am more than tempted to put thoughts in writing on what went well, or failed miserably, last year:

· Consolidation: I believe I largely achieved this goal. I have not really started any new voluminous projects, I have not commenced challenges and ‘bites’ I cannot ‘chew’. I have plenty on my plate as it is, and I think I did right in focusing upon ongoing priorities, rather than ‘inventing’ new ones.

· Start the project “Elate si” (“come back home”). I had a little idea to start a website encouraging Bulgarians abroad to return home, hoping to create a better future for our land and people, each one of us with his own little, but crucial contribution. Well, I miserably failed – it never happened. It was simply too much. More importantly though, I have also started reconsidering my attitude towards the entire idea of “encouraging” someone who has clearly made a choice of life to change mind – is it my task to convince others? Such decisions come from within, not because someone from outside told you or pushed you to do so. All I can be is a living example.

· Sports: My elbow fracture from September 2017 is now all but fading away, thank God. I am back into volleyball quite actively, I cycled few thousands of km last year (including a week-long trip to so-called North Macedonia and Greece), I do regular table tennis, football, little exercises at home – I keep active and it is quite addictive.

· Piano: In 2018, I wanted to learn three pieces. I learned 1.5, but one of them was particularly complicated and difficult to learn. I am happy though. In my busy life, I managed to squeeze some time to learn a beautiful art, regardless of the fact I theoretically “failed” on my goal.

· Saving money: Really, I have a lot of work in this regard. I have had far too many ongoing expenses and costs that have kept me barely afloat. Significant failure with important lessons I learned.

· Read: I failed to reach my own goal. Reading requires peace and silence, which are a particularly scarce commodity in my current lifestyle, sadly.

· Travel: I definitely travelled aplenty. Did visit most destinations I wanted, too.

WRAP-UP

2018 was the year of consolidation. Of stabilisation – I felt the need to concentrate on the ongoing matters and not take on more new projects/learnings/endeavours. I had quite a success in that – most of my ongoing projects and items I am responsible for are going rather well, they are under control and are manageable. On the other side though, at times I feel I am on the verge of my capabilities. I leave the year with a focus on trying not to be always everywhere, and that letting go of certain items can be very relieving and liberating. Choosing well, optimising time and relaxation – crucial. I also feel I need more unplanned, un-organised and un-prepared-for time that I can do simple and non-planned relaxation, leaving space for more spontaneous actions and freedom. Let’s see what 2019 has in hand for me – I’m sure it’ll fly by and before I know, I will be writing my “2019 overview” 😊.

8 tips on how to learn a language

Wed, 24 Oct 2018 15:38:57 -0400

Earlier this year, a fabulous human being, and, luckily, a friend of mine (Smilyan Pavlov) asked me: “Hey, you that you know a thing or two about languages… Why don’t you write about it?”

So, here it is. I’ll try to keep it concise and to-the-point. Even if it helps only one person, it is worth the effort :) hope you Enjoy!

1) No shortcuts

We must say this from the very beginning: there are no shortcuts whatsoever. “Oh, I want to learn just the basics, just speaking a bit”.. “Oh, what is the best way to learn language X/Y/Z? I want to do it quickly”. No, there is no “quicker” way, or other ways to “cheat” the learning. Language learning is a timely and intensive activity. You can “cheat”, of course, but your knowledge would likely be unstable, unsustainable, scattered and, frankly, useless as such. Enter the language learning process with the clear thought that it cannot be done “quickly”.

2) Patience

You will not be able to understand everything from the beginning. Better come to terms with this confronting reality sooner than later. Sometimes (very own experience) you will be faced with wanting to be able to understand what you hear/read almost immediately. And it would simply make no sense in your head. Don’t despair – it is only natural. It is a slippery slope of disappointment to be constantly missing somethings, thinking: “ah, I will never learn”.. or: “I’m crap, that’s not for me”. Just let it go. Understanding one word more than the previous time, is already a progress. You will not just wake up being “better”. It will come slowly, with its time.

3) Learning a language is akin to building a house

As in: start with the foundations first. What do I mean with “foundation”? Well, think of the very basics of a language. “I am, you are, he is”, or “I go, you go, she goes”, “I do, you do” etc. In essence, the present simple tense of the most crucial verbs you need to express the absolute basics of daily processes. Once you have that, you move to the next level, perhaps the first floor of the house: linking words, then perhaps past tense, future tense, etc, so as to enable the speech/language ‘production’ process (writing).

4) Writing and producing

Producing a written script of any language is the most effort-some, thorough and comprehensive work in any language. To write, i.e. to create a text, to “produce” written work, it requires the highest concentration, consideration, thought and depth. Your first writing ever will be crap. The second one probably too. The third though would likely be slightly better. And so on. Practice writings, even if the most small and “non-important” ones. They will eventually add-up and make for a better writer. It takes time, dedication and steadfastness. No other way.

5) Persistence

Just don’t give up. Of course, we are human and it is tiring, disappointing, could even be annoying. But those feelings will pass with the time and will be substituted with, little by little, satisfaction and gratitude to one self. Don’t rip yourself off the chance to reap the fruits of your dedication!

6) Do it in a group/lesson setting

I find being member of groups very useful and functional. Of course, we all have different levels, but it allows you time to contemplate and re-hear something you perhaps didn’t know, or learn from your peers. Plus, having a set dates and times gives discipline.

7) Make it fun!

In the context of point 6 above, being in a group also makes it fun, as you can laugh, enjoy and make it a social event, too, rather than a tedious chore. Learning a language should be fun, not a torture – try make the best of it! :)

8) Just do it!

Seriously, simply go there and start. If not you - who, if not now - when? Time flies. Set the first step. Before you know it, you’ll be much ahead.

Thanks for your time and I hope it was useful!

What is your experience with learning a language? Feel free to share in the panel below :)

Yearly goals 2018

Mon, 12 Mar 2018 17:16:31 -0400

2017 was a truly crucial and very determining year in my life. It was turbulent and rich in events, but I can say it was generally a very successful year with many of my 2017 Yearly goals achieved, such as coming to live back in my dear homeland, as well as starting a new fantastic career, through to making a modest start on my own olive plantation.

As this very year is now notably progressing, I don’t want to be too late with the 2018 Yearly goals. That’s why, before it’s half-way through the year, it is time to sit down and reflect on where you want to be by the end of the current year. Here are the main goals I would like to set to myself (I have already started working on these):

Consolidation: 2017 was the year of movement, change and some groundbreaking events and new beginnings. This year, however, I would really like to stabilise what I have, focus on the here and now. No major plans ahead. To mention a few of the newities, I started a humble olive plantation in Sandanski area, southwest Bulgaria, I started a new job, moved to a “new” old country, and started learning Greek (a new language). Plenty to digest. I feel the need to stop “eating” new experiences is very present. It is really time to “digest”.
Start the project “Elate si” (come back home). For as contradictory to the previous goal as it may look, this idea is now for a long time maturing in my head. I have long been a vivid propagator of it, but now I want to give it an official form, with its own website and path.

The project: in the last one generation (~25 years+), my beautiful homeland of Bulgaria has lost between 25 and 30% of its population, approx. 1/3 (~9mln in 1990, less than 6mln in 2018). No other crisis in our written history has seen such a biblical exodus of its population.
The better part of these evacuees (yes, it’s a perfectly fitting word) are in fact craving to return. Most of them are not so extremely better off, but they have a more stable, albeit not easy life. Many are surrounded by other Bulgarians, watch Bulgarian TV, dream of coming back, count the minutes to come back for a holiday… They are secretly craving to return for good. Who on earth wants to live far away from where family, friends, and heart lie? Well, my message will be directed to those: “Come back!”. Our country is in a dire need of you, just as you need it, too. There is no other place that you can call home. It’s a cause worth fighting for.
How can we reverse these catastrophic, apocalyptic demographic processes that appear irreversible? By acting on micro-level, with a macro-awareness in our head in the background. The macro-picture is indeed, sad and very grim. What we are left with is our own level of impact, our immediate surroundings. What can we do, what can we mean for our community? I want to inspire those evacuees that there is a chance to make a living here. You won’t be a millionaire immediately, no one promises a red carpet upon landing and roses every day. However, there is a chance to improve your immediate surroundings by being the change yourself. Start small. Change yourself. Your immediate surroundings. This multiplied by 10, 100, 1000, etc. etc, is the most promising and tangible positive change that our country can hope for. We all have our part to play in this enormous endeavour. It must start somewhere. With ourselves.

I invite you all: come back, Elate si. Together we can reach unimaginable heights.

Sports: In the past year I managed to cycle like never before, I did thousands of kilometres. I also played volleyball. However, my double elbow fracture impaired my efforts significantly after September 2017. I have some catching up to do. I could go back into dancing, or volleyball. Depending on my time, of course. But I want to keep active. And I will!
Piano: last year I aimed at learning two new pieces. This year I want to learn three. Playing piano is an incomparable pleasure and relaxation. I urge all of those who have some knowledge on an instrument to not leave it dust. Use it :) it is a fabulous mean of expressing your soul, mood, and an immeasurable form of meditation.
Saving money: I have a sum in my mind that I would like to have saved this year by the end of the year. I hope I can achieve it, because I have plenty of ongoing expenses. I appear to constantly be lagging behind. I must be on top of my finances, not behind. It will be a good test for me.
Read: Last year I read the most books since my school years. I would like to keep it up and read at least 10 books by the end of the year. If I exceed, only so well.
Travel: Travelling is such a fabulous means of mobility of the body, mind and soul. But it is also a very slippery slope. One trip.. Just one more here.. And just a small one there.. At the end of the year you turn, having spent a lot of time, energy (not to mention funds) on trips. They are also very distracting. That’s why we ought to choose them wisely. I’d like to do the following trips:

Turkey with a very good friend: Cycling a week through the Turkish coast.
Sozopol, the old city on the Bulgarian coast: this is where I always go for the best relaxation. I have friends there, too, which make it an ever more attractive destination.
Skiing: I would like to go skiing this year, a sport I love practising, but haven’t practised in three years.
Greece: So close to where I live, so full of beauties, and yet I have only been there once in my life. Great excuse to practice my freshly-learned basic Greek. Go there once perhaps.

Thanks for taking the time! And what are your goals? :)

2017 Yearly goals overview

Fri, 29 Dec 2017 14:42:28 -0500

Time definitely flies. Before we know it, another year has slid behind. They literally fly them years, don’t they.

This is why at their end I feel the urge to sit down and reflect for a bit on what my goals have been, how far I have got, and where I would like to be in one year.

Here is a brief overview of my yearly goals for 2017, let’s see how I scored:)

Start my own olive farm: This goal has largely succeeded. In February 2017 I planted the first 45 trees (mostly olives, but also figs and pomegranates). Yes, hardly a “farm”, but definitely a beginning. Hopefully, the winter will be mild and they can have a smooth first 12 months soon. I am particularly happy for achieving this goal, as it had been a long-standing dream of mine. Now the trees are in the ground and they grow as we speak :).

Concentrate my effort in a career: certainly the biggest achievement for the last year was the start of a new fascinating and inspiring job in Bulgaria in September. After numerous interviews and screenings, I got the opportunity to work for a large international company that offers virtually endless horizons and possibilities for a career growth, while working with a fabulous team of young professionals. At the current stage, I feel I am at the right place - there’s nowhere else I’d like to be! A feeling I hadn’t felt for quite some time.
Keep far away from electronic devices: Quite a major failure, unfortunately. My old and scruffy Nokia that I was planning to use more and more got stolen (?!, who steals a 5 EUR phone..), and I even had to purchase a new phone. Could really do with less devices.
Less energy in superficial contacts, focus on deeper connections: quite a success really. This year I spent much quality time with few people that truly care for me, and I truly care for. Those who love you will find you, reach out and be there.
Reading in foreign languages: This year I have read a total of 21 books, mostly literature, but also history and other genres. Of all these 2 are foreign - a Dutch book about the Middle East (Joris Luyendijk - “A good man must hit his wife sometimes”, Een goede man slaat soms zijn vrouw”) and reading another novel in English (written by a Bulgarian) I just got. In brief, I have not quite reached the goal of 2 pages per day, but am not so far from it. Reading in a foreign language is definitely not as easy as I thought :).
Sport: I have kept up a very good record throughout the year, until I fractured my elbow in September. Since then my sports activities have declined, but I still maintain a decent record. I had to temporarily stop volleyball, but did start on jogging 2-3 times a week, which is very rewarding.
Learn two pieces on the piano: I even learned three. Still, looking back, I’d have liked to learn more, as playing piano is a most pleasurable activity, a fabulous stress releaser and… simply beautiful.
Attention to humans: Succeeded very much in paying attention to humans around me. In fact, it is a double-edged sword - sometimes being too social can lead to too many superficial contacts. Perhaps staying calm and silent is sometimes a bigger virtue than paying too much attention to everyone, that’s the lesson I learned this year.
Be bored: had some beautiful moments of “boredom” throughout the year actually. Many at my favourite place on the coast - old town of Sozopol. Definitely a goal to take to next year, and to my whole life journey in fact. How beautiful is it to be with your own thoughts and self, simply contemplating?
Achievements outside the yearly goals:

Started learning Greek in September, finished the first level (A1) and signed up for the second level (A2).
Started cooking slightly more than before.
Started jogging - a new sport for me.
Managed to, yet again, do a big “dive into the deep” by moving back to Bulgaria this time. It was a turbulent process - “new” old country, with a new job, re-establishing my life, and other challenges related to a change of country, including learning a new language and recovering from a nasty elbow injury.

Conclusion: This year has been most eventful for me, utterly colourful and even intense I’d say. It has cost a lot of energy, but has brought many positives back, too. Shared many beautiful moments with important for me people. I also took some crucial and most significant steps that I had postponed for some time, and that feels particularly rewarding. I let it go with a feeling of content, achievement, and with a thirst for a promising 2018!

How was your year? If you want to share, just drop me a message, I’d be most curious to hear your story!

The olive project

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 10:40:06 -0500

Last week (starting from 27.02.2017) I have been having my hands (literally, too) onto a project that I have been dreaming and talking about for some time. I also mentioned it in my Yearly goals for 2017, namely – starting my own (i.a.) olive plantation. Well, the result is, after a lot of hard work in the last week, there are now 40+ test plants in the ground in a small village nearby Sandanski, Bulgaria, as per today. :) Here is an update on how that happened (pictures available below):

Preparations: My sister had kindly offered to come along and be part of that new beginning. We both landed in Sofia around 25^th February, planning to leave the day after. We left Sofia early in the morning on Sunday, 26.02., with the train to Sandanski, Pirin Macedonia region. We would stay in the lovely town Melnik where we were to a hotel called Elli Greco, a fantastic place with the friendliest staff. We said goodbye to my father in the morning, and he mentioned he “might pop on Tuesday or Wednesday, just to check the land out”. OK, we thought, went on the train – gorgeous trip through wonderful nature – and arrived in Sandanski. There we went for a walk – cozy little town, worth a visit! Little did we know that we would get a phone call from my father: “I am in front of the hotel, I hitch-hiked. I wanted to come for moral support and will go back tomorrow”. Imagine our surprise :)

Day 1:

– Next day, early in the morning, we got onto the car/minivan that the hotel so generously had lent us. Destination – Sandanski, going to a Notary’s office to sign the deal. The funniest notary ever – turned out his daughter and I studied the exact same subject at University of Hull, and she even remembered me. Further, there was the cutest dog at the office too. Quite an experience – went relatively smooth and within one hour I became the legal owner of the piece of land, nearly half hectare (4,150m2).

– collecting the plants – I had ordered the plants days earlier from a reputed nursery (www.palmi.bg), and by that time they were already delivered at the courier’s office in the city of Sandanski. Around 50 units in total – 25 olives, 8-10 figs, 4-5 Pomme-grenades, 2 bay trees, 2 palm trees (trachycarpus fortunei), 4 oleanders, 2 lavenders and 2 rosemaries. Loaded them in the van and off we went to see the land!

– We arrived at around 12h, checked the place, and quickly started to divide it up – the plan was to test-plant around 45 units around the plot to see how they react to the soil, slope, climate, etc. We promptly located the places the tree-holes would be – all in the different ends of the property – and started digging. Plenty of work ahead – every tree hole was to be around 80cm/80cm/80cm, or almost 1m³. Quite some work for three people :)

– by the end of the light part of the day, we had managed to dig 10 holes in total, and plant 10 olive trees. Good start! But plenty of work ahead!

Tree planting methodology: dig a hole. Fill it back with the soil. Half-way through, fill it with rotted manure. There was plenty on-site, as it had been used for years by local shepherds and wild horses. Mix well the manure and soil, give plenty of water, place the tree, and make a good tree bed. Cover with mulch – also readily available there, dry hay.

Day 2: We thought – ok, today we finish on time, come on, let’s work hard! We even thought that we could bring my father to the train to Sofia – after all, the man had come for some moral support only, and there he was – already two days working hard :) So, we did do around 20 holes that day, and planted around 15 trees/plants in total. We went back to the hotel quite exhausted, but hard work calms the body and mind so well – had some excellent wine and food, and we all slept like babies.

Day 3, Wednesday: we thought – OK, today it’s gonna be ready, all finished, perhaps before lunch! Well, that was also wishful thinking – after hard work, we did finish all the work by 16h. We then brought my father to the train station – he had to work the day after. My sister and I, however, stayed for another night – and another treat. We went to a fantastic SPA – sauna, mineral jacuzzi, mineral water swimming pool, steam bath.. A deserved treat! We finalised our stay with a delicious dinner, matched with excellent Macedonian wine!

The weather: As if pre-ordered to perfectly fit our needs! Went extremely smooth – day one and two were plain sunshine with around 20 degrees, Wednesday was more cloudy, but still not too cold. To make it perfect, the night of Wednesday rained hard, which would be a most welcome start for the young plants! :)

The people: Probably the most crucial aspect. No one can do anything alone. Could not have done anything without the relentless and unconditional support of those who helped me out financially, as well as my sister and father with their hard Egyptian-slave-like work! On top of all, the hotel of Elli Greco provided me with the van and some crucial gardening tools (pick-axe, spade), not to mention the constant assistance and readiness to help.

Conclusion: I must say it almost appeared as if I am helped by God, universe, destiny – call it whatever you want, but it all clicked well and went as smooth as possibly imaginable! Weather, people, logistics… All worked out simply perfect. And for now this is only a test – perhaps not even 10% of the trees will succeed in growing. Even if not a single tree does succeed, I thoroughly enjoyed the process and have made connections with people that will last, and I bonded greatly with my father and sister, with whom we worked relentlessly. It also felt so enriching and inspiring to work for your own project, with your hands in the ground, literally – hands on. Working for a purpose – a unique and fulfilling feeling of purpose that I would be very happy to experience more often!

Wanna join? This is not only ‘my’ project. I started it, but it is to share. If you feel like coming, seeing, planting some trees, working on the land while enjoying the weather and the ‘terrible’ Bulgarian beer/wine, just let me know :) There will likely be plenty more work!

Sandanski, 26.02.2017, shortly before getting the phone call from my dad :)

With the Notary, with the super-cute dog, 27.02.2017

The plants, delivered in bomb-proof packing (27.02.2017)

The land, immediately to the right of the green wheat field

Egyptian slave No 1 (27.02.2017)

Egyptian slave No 2

Working hard (27.02.2017)

Unpacking the first olives to be planted (27.02.2017)

The first tree to be planted (27.02.2017)

Planting the first tree (27.02.2017)

Best breakfast - mostly home-made! Excellent ‘fuel’ for the hard work (28.02.2017)

Some uninvited guests (01.03.2017)

Final results - lines of olives (01.03.2017)

Bringing my father on the train to Sofia (01.03.2017)

L’ultima cena, The last supper, with excellent local wine. Thank you, Ilina! <3

Yearly goals 2017 (Jan 2017)

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 10:25:10 -0500

Inspired by the pleasant feeling of writing my 2016 Yearly Plan “on paper” (and the brief overview), I shall now move on to my new, 2017 plan. I say inspiring, because words fly, and what is written lasts. And it could be very rewarding to look back and re-evaluate.

Start my own olive farm

Those who know me, would have probably noticed that I am rather addicted to olives, olive oil, and Mediterranean vegetation in general (figs, bay tree, oleander, etc.). But olives are truly my passion – such a peaceful and literally gracious tree, appreciated from biblical times to our times! After many years of talking about it, I have finally made the move towards taking action – starting my own olive plantation.

I am currently in the process of purchasing a piece of land in the extreme southwest of Bulgaria, in an area called Pirin Macedonia, known for some of the mildest climates of the country, in the Sandanski area. With near-2700h of sunshine hours per year, the region appears to be most suitable for Mediterranean cultures, and can use it for other purposes. If it succeeds, it will be a first step towards my own dream of becoming not only a consumer of olive products, but also a producer. And, in the end, a dream is there to either act on it, or leave it as a lovely imaginary reality. Well, I have decided to act! :)

I must also underline though that the idea is far from being purely agricultural, or simply about getting money and profit from some trees. It is a multi-faceted project:

1) I love Bulgaria, its sunny climate, food, untouched nature, people, wine.. and the list is long.. It is a unique way to connect to the place that I sadly do not live in anymore.

2) Plant-wise: I am up for something that no one has done before. For Italy and Greece, olives are simply a triviality. For Bulgaria, it is considered ‘exotic’, and the answer of people would mostly be “are you crazy” or “it will never work, it’s not gonna grow here”. This is what makes it unique, and, matched with my endless love for the olive, is even more so a motivational factor.

concentrate my effort in a career

Alongside my olive hobby, I would like to focus my attention on starting a career and focusing my multidisciplinary background into an area of interest and specialising. To make a profile, in other words. It doesn’t really matter that much what it is – could be an international institution, a PhD, or a legal job. Ultimately, what is important is that I start getting a direction – I am not getting any younger, and I would like to streamline my energy into a concentrated effort. It would also provide for some basic financial safety.

keep far away from electronic devices

What a horrible addiction those screens are! One of my yearly goals is to reduce the amount of screens around me and the distraction of el. Devices. Easily said, but to execute it, I would need more than just words. I am planning to revive my 12-year-old (immortal) Nokia phone. Taking the temptation away is definitely a good start.

less energy in superficial contacts, focus on deeper connections

I notice that I have built such a vast network of friends, keeping up with them in itself would probably take a 3-4 FTE (Full-time employment, jobs). As sad as it may be, it is not realistic to keep up a deep, involving and truly valuable connection with absolutely everyone. It makes one go mad – you wanna answer all your friends always. That means a WhatsApp list of dozens of unread chats. I must focus on my own life, on my own path, develop into what I want to be, and then share it with the world. That’s why one of my focus points for this year will be to concentrate my effort into some deeper connections, instead of trying to constantly be in touch with everyone, all the time. Now, if you are my friend (which you probably are if you are reading this), don’t get offended or shocked – it’s not like I will ignore you or forget you. We probably share a similar challenge here. Just checking the amount of WhatsApp contacts or Facebook friends we have can drive us mad. Now, how would it be to keep a constantly deep and meaningful relationship with absolutely all of them? Unthinkable.

reading in foreign languages

Last year I surpassed my relatively modest reading goal (5 pages per day). This year has started good – in the last month only, I have read approx. 1000 pages (two extremely involving books). The trap is, however, that I keep reading in my mother tongue. I should read in a foreign language (besides English) more and more. Therefore, I am setting a very modest goal – 2 pages per day. It’s a start. Even one paragraph is better than nothing, right?

Sport

I would like to keep up with my sporting activities. I currently do volleyball and I cycle approx. 150-200km per week. I am keen on doing other sports too, like swimming and yoga, or discovering something new – let’s see where the year will take me.

Learn two pieces on the piano

Another modest goal. Last year I only leaned one piece for the piano. Better than nothing, but still – let’s double that this year :) Already learned one by the way! Playing an instrument can be such a mind-relieving and soothing exercise, at least for me.

Attention to humans

It isn’t that difficult to just pay attention to the humans around you. What I mean: instead of immediately opening up a phone in the train, perhaps try to stay calm and observe others. Who knows – you might cross looks with them, or a conversation might ensue. In any case, I want to try to be attentive to humans around, sense their mood/energy, be aware of their presence and not see them as a nasty annoyance to my senseless scrolling:)

Be bored

Very much related to the last one – just allow myself to be bored and not indulge into distractions. Simply wait for the bus. Or walk to the train station, without music, news, Facebook, or other one of the endless list of distractions. When was the last time I (allowed myself) to be bored? Can’t even remember.

These are the goals I could gather for now. Even achieving half of them would be a better result than the starting point.

Thanks for your time and I hope it was an enjoyable, and hopefully – an inspiring read.

Yearly goals 2016 review

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 10:22:01 -0500

The year has turned, and the time for reflection has come. Last year, around this time, I made a list of yearly goals. Now, a year later, let’s see how well I fared:

Live here and now: I would say that this goal is achieved only partly. It remains a constant challenge for this year too, and, dare I say, a lifelong task.
Eat as healthy as possible: With small exceptions, I eat almost exclusively healthy food. It makes my body and mind feel excellent, and I am in a rather good shape.
Rest, relax, meditate. Only partly. Could work better on it. World’s just too hectic! :)
Sport: Succeeded on a very large scale. I cycled hundreds of km in difficult terrains, practiced swimming, dancing, volleyball and others.
Read more. Very proud to say this has succeeded and I even surpassed my goal of 5 pages per day. I read 2 full thick books, and I started a third one. I also read numerous pages of (physical) quality newspapers (e.g. Daily Mirror, The Sun..^^, kidding of course, not these)
Concision: I kept paying attention. It has improved.
Speak less (and slow), listen more. Also did my best here. Often I remain quiet on purpose, and speak less, resulting in some colleagues asking: “You are more quiet than the usual Alex”. I feel this improved significantly, but it could improve still.
Write neatly: Mostly successful. Dawn Piper, a friend of mine, once said, upon seeing my groceries list: “Your handwriting is so neat!”. Albeit perhaps too kind a remark, it was encouraging I kept focusing on it. Could do better though!

In conclusion, I am glad to say that a significant part of my yearly goals have been reached, albeit some only partly. However, what we must remember: even if you only achieve half, or a quarter – does not matter, you tried, and that was the best you could do, and it was better than nothing!

On another note, I have also made some other achievements, outside the set goals – I learned a new piece on the piano, I learned how to dance Horo dances (traditional Bulgarian dance), which was particularly handy during my brother’s spectacular wedding last September. Notably, after years of postponing, I obtained my driving licence from the first attempt, in a short period (two weeks), with 100% rate on my theory exam.

The above gives me good feeling to go into my next year’s goals, which I will soon lay out on my blog. Stay tuned :)

Comparing to others (May 2016)

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 10:21:04 -0500

We humans tend to compare ourselves a lot to each other. “Ah, I am so behind, look at [fill in the blank], who is already ahead, and I’m lagging behind.” Or: “Ah, my friends / family/[whoever] is “already earning so much’ or ‘married and with children”, or “doing so well”, etc. etc. etc.

Sounds familiar?

Comparing is natural. From an early age, we are surrounded by peers who also have to ‘perform and achieve’. Think school grades. Think diplomas. Then jobs, salaries, etc. Other examples and comparisons are omnipresent. Notably, social media feeds of ‘great new job’ or ‘look at this holiday here’ or ‘feeling fabulous’, provide comparison ‘hazards’ aplenty.

Comparison has a good side – looking at others can motivate, it can inspire us, give ideas, and enlighten. Sadly, however, we more often tend to feel bad about ourselves, that we are losers compared to our peers, who are ‘so much better’, and that we won’t get anywhere.

What we probably don’t realise is that the other [fill in the blanks of that ‘extraterrestrially’ good person] is most likely involved in exactly the same exercise. Better still, it might well be he is comparing himself to you, may be even on that exact same topic/skill you are comparing to him. Let me tell you three reasons why such comparisons are pointless and harmful.

Firstly, we all have our individual story and background, leading us to the right place, at the right time, here and now. That is, with our knowledge and life experience as it was, we made certain decisions we believed were right at the time of making, and therefore, we are at the right place here and now. You could not have been anywhere else. I am not suggesting to sit still and never work for the betterment of oneself. Rather, realise that where we sit right now is OK, and we can always change it, without destructive self-critique.

The second fallacy of the ‘better others’ is that it assumes that whatever we do, is not good enough; there is that someone no one has seen, but he is the ‘better’ one, THE example.

“Who knows what a clumsy piece I have produced” (e.g. an assignment for school), surely, that’s not how it’s done. The knowledgeable ‘other’ will surely outdo it, and I am definitely a loser.”

This line of thought operates on the premise that somewhere out there, there are those amazing, unique, the ‘extraterrestrially’ good people who do it ‘the right way’. But there aren’t – they are only humans, like all of us, among us, and likely are confronted with exactly the same fear.

The third drawback, and this is the most significant one in my view, is the self-diminishing, that escalates in a self-destruction. Repeating to our inner selves that we are simply not good enough, because someone else is better, and I’ll never reach him, is inherently unproductive and destructive. It automatically puts whatever we DID already achieve into a rubbish bin with a label: not good enough. Is this how personal achievements ought to be treated, even if they are ‘little’?

To summarise

Comparison is natural, and has its many positive sides, such as inspiration, ‘peer pressure’ for improving ourselves, and others. Mostly, however, it is exercised in a negative manner and works destructively on our souls, bodies, and self-esteem. But I have explained why most of the premises upon which negative comparisons rest are flawed and destructive.

Wanna think twice before you do it next time?

Thank you for your time, and I hope you enjoyed reading. Please feel free to leave a comment below – I am curious to know your thoughts.

What next? (April 2016)

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 10:19:36 -0500

Source: Ilikewallpaper.net

Have you ever had the feeling of: “Ah, what shall I do now with my life? What is the next ‘best’ choice”?

Having recently graduated, I face that exact same question that undoubtedly so many others do. Leaving the comfortable and protected space under the ‘wing’ of Alma Mater, we have to make choices. “The world is mine”, as the famous song (OK, not so famous perhaps) goes – I could virtually chose any place on the map and build a life there. So many possible paths and options.

So, what’s next?

The trouble of choice

The generation of our parents and grandparents often faced a life with little to no choice – you had to work on the field if you wanted food, you would live in the same village or town, or at least in one country only, and most people worked in one place for 20-30-40 years, one job, one town, one factory.

Our generation is confronted with the other extreme: vast, incomprehensible availability of choice. Wanna live in (whatever country)? There’s the airport. Wanna study (name it) subject? Here’s a long list of universities in various countries. Wanna work in (name a country)? Just go and do it. The combination of choice(s) is uncountable, and facing it can be overwhelming. To make matters worse, some of us, like myself, tend to endlessly doubt and re-think the choices made. Yes, silly and unproductive, but it is linked to the trouble of choice, and is not easy to overcome. Or am I the only one troubled here? I doubt.

‘There must be something better!’

A trap I face personally is the constant seeking of ‘better options’. That is, you (think you) chose one place, but it is not rare to hear a voice in your head: “Arghh.. that [other] place… I could have been there now! The weather/people/food/education/job/standard of living is better there!” And you almost regret the choice you made, not living fully in the here and now, and definitely not living in that other, ‘better’ place, leaving oneself in a sort of a ‘nowhere’. But is there a cure to it? I’d be glad to hear opinions and input.

The deeper question: What do I really want?

Today, after work, I sat down and wrote for about an hour. Just threw my thoughts on a sheet of paper, and, reflecting upon the above-described themes, I reached the conclusion that these are intrinsically linked to answering the question for oneself: “What do I really want?” Not my parents, my friends, or anyone else. To discover this lifelong question (it definitely has no static answer), we need to get closer to ourselves, and try to feel the pulse of our own destiny and heart. For, if we do not, this quote of Seneca is very applicable:

For a ship that knows not its port of destination, no wind is good wind.

How to find one’s ‘port of destination’?

By doing, and not over-thinking (a notorious trap). Just get your hands on something and try. Even if the port is not perfectly visible, you are still moving. For if the ship stands still at quay, it definitely will reach no port.

And you, what is your port of destination?

Yearly goals for 2016

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 10:16:59 -0500

Before the year really starts rolling in, I decided to write some goals to achieve. The beginning of a new year, though now slightly behind, is a great ‘excuse’ to sit down and reflect upon.. upon so many aspects of your life, such as where you are, where you are going, with whom, what is dear to you, what would you like to achieve, etc. Here are the most prominent of goals I have for this new 2016.

Do one thing at at time: just how tough is this for me, but surely for others too. So easy to be busy in the head with 5+ items simultaneously, jump from one task to the other.. This is a noble, but almost impossible to achieve goal: do one thing, sit still, finish it, and do the next task. But I’m keen on trying my best!
Live here and now: largely related to the above, because when the head is full of thoughts for what’s next, it rarely is actually here. Another noble goal.
Eat as healthy as possible: Takes some effort, but a very rewarding one, plus cooking is sort of meditative. The one goal I am definitely likely to achieve this year.
Rest, relax, meditate. All that is necessary to curb the already endless flow of energy I seem to have, which often results in restlessness.
Sport: Essential part in keeping the body and soul more rested and peaceful. With the notable advantage of being fun, leaving you fit and healthy.
Read more. Not online articles, but books. As my father says: “the computer / Internet is an endless ocean, but a little bit shallow. The deepest sea is the books”. The man has read thousands of books. Well, I’ll start modest and realistic: 5 pages a day. But, surely, if the book is involving, that’d mean more pages.
Speak less (and slow), listen more. It is so so easy to carry on blabla-ing. I am an expert myself. I’d much rather I could use the ears-to-mouth proportion also in terms of output: we have two ears and one mouth for a reason.
Write neatly: I catch myself writing utterly scruffy and often unreadable. A friend once even asked me, upon seeing my writing: “Alex, did you forget how to write?”. Sometimes it does really look like I did. Well, it’s worth putting an effort in it. Putting that just small extra effort into writing, really, how much more time would it take?

Those are already quite enough, and if I achieved even a small part of them, I’d be happy.

What are your goals, have you thought about this yourself?

Thanks for your time and I hope you enjoyed reading it.

Constantly moving (Dec 2015)

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 10:15:54 -0500

I’m back on my blog!

For some time I have been thinking about re-writing stuff in my blog. Not too political, or academically loaded, as the previous few posts of mine, but to start writing about personal experiences and thoughts.

Why now?

Well, firstly, I have the illuminating and inspiring example of one human I am blessed to know, Smilyan Pavlov (link), who is writing openly, honestly, but importantly – on a regular basis. Secondly, there are quite a few events in my life for them to be just ‘passing by’ without a proper attention. Why not on a blog, so that I can see what my surroindings think like?

Why did I not write for more than a year?

There is always the excuse of “I had no time”. But it’s too cheap (right, Smilyan? ^^), and far too easy. The truth is, retrospectively looking, that I have been 'scared’.

Scared of my own 'voice’, to be 'wrong’, and/or 'attacked’, or confronted

A recurring fear of mine. Always scared to underperform, to not be 'perfect’. If you look at my other three posts, they are not perfect, of course, but perfection is sought – I have double, and triple-checked all data I put, with constant citing of respectable sources – like I do not dare to write stuff on my own. All my other posts are easily defendable, and, as profound and well-researched they appeared to be at the time, they offer little to no personal appraisal or points raised. Well, how boring is it if all we do as people is to re-cite what others have already written (or re-quoted themselves?^^). I am inspired to write some of my own thoughts, at the risk of making new “enemies”, or some who 'dislike me’. If they do, who says their views are the 'right’ ones anyway?

What I wanted to share now:

Very recently I packed all my stuff, jumped onto a trian, and off I went from Trento, Italy, to The Netherlands – a new (old) destination, for a new adventure. On one hand, I was struck by how 'trivial’ this seemed to my brain – Alexander, you have done this plenty of times. What’s the big deal?

But it’s quite a deal. What a weird 'trivialty’ that our generation has lived to know, don’t you think? Only a generation or two earlier, this was something unpracticable at best, and unthinkable at worst. How has this become such an often occasion, that one leaves the roots and his surroundings, to change environments completely? Like a snail: with my 'house’ everywhere. That’s how I felt boarding that train with literally all my belongings, all what is dear to me (notably, the two bicycles I love the most :)).

Is this normal?

I don’t know, and I am not looking to give a sweepingly generalising answer. I know it is a fact in my life, (surely in many others’) and will keep observing its effects on me.

What are your thoughts? Feel free to share them, or not, of course.

Enough for now, and thanks for your time!

Why is Erdogan unstoppable at winning elections? (April 2014)

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 10:14:33 -0500

Source: Reuters

For almost twelve years, Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have dominated Turkish politics, winning all elections since, the most recent one in March 2014. This essay will endeavour to provide an insight into how and why is it that the AKP and Erdoğan, all the criticism and scandals notwithstanding, remain the political power number one in Turkey.

1. The context of Erdoğan’s rise to power

The party won the elections in 2002 in the background of, as described by Istanbul lawyer Selim Yavuz¹, “a society that was sick of political and economic chaos, of unstable coalition governments, inflation, high unemployment, constant political and economic instability and no good prospects for the future”.² Therefore, when in 2002 the AKP won a landslide victory against its opponents and formed a one-party cabinet for the first time since 1987, the Turkish society was “excited”, Yavuz continues, with people’s main expectations on Erdoğan “to stabilise Turkey’s economy and politics”. Further, in a country that for decades had to strictly set religion aside in the Ataturk’s Republic, Erdoğan’s openly Islamic rhetoric reassured the hopes of many in Turkey (a country with a 99% Muslim population³). And one may well argue that the AKP hardly failed living up to many of these hopes, as will be analysed.

2. Turkey’s political, strategic and economic growth under Erdoğan

Even Erdoğan’s most fierce opponents would find it difficult to deny that Turkey’s economic, political and strategic importance has been steadily growing since the AKP took power.

2.1. The economy under AKP rule

The economic policies adopted by the AKP raised the GNP⁴ from $300 billion in 2002 to $750 billion in 2008, and the average annual per capita income from $3,300 to over $10,000 in the same period. The real GDP⁵ rose by 64 percent during 2002-2012, and real GDP per capita by 43 percent.⁶ This is not a bad record of growth, and the AKP government, even if indeed, as often alleged, corrupt, it most certainly has delivered on the economic field with a very visible rise in the income level and standard of living of the average Turkish citizen.⁷ ⁸ This is a significant factor that must not be overlooked when analysing Erdoğan’s electoral successes.

2.2 Political stability. The army as a factor in Turkish politics

There is a one element of Turkish democracy that renders unique – the military. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the Father of the Turkish republic, was a vehement opponent of the inclusion of religion in the politics, and to this aim, he envisaged the military to be the guardian of secularism in Turkey, or the guardian of the Republic. The army, however is not just a calm, stand-by guardian; it has been actively involved in the political life of Turkey, with several military coups staged against democratically elected civilian governments in the last decades. Thus, the military is an element that the AKP leader has had to take very seriously into account.

And indeed, Erdoğan has found his own way to address the issue of the military – he has decreased the army’s influence in politics since he came to power through various means – change of the constitution, attempts to influence top officers, as well as outright suppression, arrest and imprisonment.⁹ ¹⁰ The result is that the army is less likely than any time in the last decades to stage a coup or to actively meddle in Turkey’s political life. In this way, Erdoğan has assured he has all the space for any political manoeuvres he may wish, and it is absolutely crucial to acknowledge this as an integral element of Erdoğan’s relatively long rule.

2.3 Restoring Turkey’s image internationally

It is not only Erdoğan’s religiously observant image or the economic successes that appeal to his followers. It is his combative personality – the fact he does not hesitate to take on the entrenched Turkish elite as well as global powers – that appeals to them as well. He personifies the desire of the majority of the Turkish population to demonstrate that they count both domestically and internationally; that they are autonomous actors both at home and abroad.¹¹ Example of this new approach to foreign policy is Turkey’s active role in the Syrian crisis, its extended involvement in the Balkans, the Middle East, and, generally, towards all its ex-Ottoman vilayets¹². Some have called it “neo-Ottomanism” — an attempt to restore the former Ottoman Empire and its vanished regional glory. Whatever the label, Turkey managed to become a key foreign policy player in the eyes of American and European leaders.¹³

3. Authoritarianism, corruption, scandals, human rights violations and Erdoğan still in power: how is it possible?

Some Turkish commentators seem puzzled by the fact that “half of the corruption claims [faced by Erdoğan] in any other democratic country would be enough for the collapse of the government.”¹⁴ In Turkey, this is clearly not the case.

3.1 No real alternative: “Uninspiring opposition”

There is another aspect of the story – the opposition, as a commentator put it, is “uninspiring”.¹⁵ For example, Ataturk’s Republican People’s Party (CHP, the next most popular party after AKP), is riven by divisions and is hampered by the lack of a compelling leader to take on Erdoğan.¹⁶ Although, undoubtedly, the party’s leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu did his best in the circumstances of the March 2014 elections, the CHP’s competition with the AKP is an unbalanced one on most fronts – poor media coverage and low support in the Kurdish regions, to name a few. The Nationalist Party of Turkey is also hardly a match to the support that the AKP receives.¹⁷ Therefore, even though Erdoğan’s rule is far from perfect, to say the least, it quickly becomes apparent that there is virtually no viable alternative.

3.2 Media coverage and freedom of press (or lack of it thereof)

According to the Middle-East journal Al-Monitor’s Turkey’s Pulse, Turkish mainstream media appears to be under the direct control of AKP elites.¹⁸ An example they give is that it has been a long time that Erdoğan participated in any one-on-one live¹⁹ debate with an opposition leader, attributing it to the assumption that all media outings are well-designed to minimise any ‘mistakes’.

This leads to the second element, namely, the “information deficiency.” The majority of the AKP’s core electoral base – 80%, according to the SONAR Research Centre – do not get their news from the Internet (which is also diligently filtered by the government anyway, e.g. recent shut-down of Twitter in late March 2014).²⁰ The point to make here is: for the vast majority of AKP voters, there is a Turkey that might be completely different to what we as outsiders may perceive it to be, and this is a factor very important to recognise in understanding Erdoğan’s support in Turkey.

3.3 Repression of any dissent

Repression of any kind of dissent, be that be journalists, intellectuals, judges, or military officers, is commonplace in Turkey and has become integral part of Erdoğan’s rule. Arrest and imprisonment of large numbers of journalists, NGO activists, or top military officials is no news in Turkey. In terms of law, this has been made possible through various controversial changes of legislation that have widened the scope of some crucial criminal definitions, such as 'enemy of the State’ or 'offence against the State’ etc.²¹ For example, Turkey has the highest number of journalists behind bars, and it has recently jailed almost 200 members of the military for “plotting a coup d'Etat” against Erdoğan’s government.²² Although Erdoğan’s electoral victories cannot be attributed only to repression, it clearly shows the methods used to crush any dissent with a view to ensuring a full control over any 'inconvenient’ elements within the country, thus strengthening further AKP’s grip on power.

4. Conclusion

For reasons, some of which discussed above, one may perceive today’s Turkey as an ever more authoritarian state, with Erdoğan and his AKP steadily going down the road of dictatorship.²³ However, in spite of the AKP’s colourful and controversial background and its inconsistent human rights record²⁴, it must be acknowledged that the party has managed to address a number of major problems. Since the AKP’s assumption of power in 2002, the political scene has been much more stable and any need for military intervention has been averted, something not to be taken for granted in the Turkish context.²⁵ The economy is yet another area in which Erdoğan’s government has performed remarkably.

Therefore, I would argue that, on the basis of the analysis above, it is most evident and natural that Erdoğan’s support seems not to dwindle with the years and scandals. It appears that the Turkey that we as outside observers see is not quite the same as the Turkey seen through the eyes of those living there and voting for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, an assertion seemingly proven by the recent elections.

1 Important to note is that Yavuz himself could hardly be considered a supporter of the AKP, as his father, a renowned general within the Turkish military, is now imprisoned for 14 years, sentenced with “plotting a coup”.

2 As quoted in De Putter, J., Minidocu: Turkije onder spanning. Verliest premier Erdoğan de macht? (Mini-documentary: Turkey under tension. Is Erdoğan losing the power?), April 2014, De Correspondent.

3 According to Government statistics, quoted in Country Profile – Turkey, January 2006, United States Library of Congress, 2008-1;

4 Gross National Product

5 (or GDP at constant prices)

6 Rodrik, D. How well did the Turkish economy do over the last decade?, Dani Rodrik’s weblog, June 20 2013

7 Ayoob, M., Erdoğan’s election victory could be good news for Turkish democracy, The Guardian

8 De Putter, Jos, In Turkije zou dit niet uitgezonden worden (In Turkey, this would not be broadcast), April 2014, De Correspondent.

9 Vezenkov, A., Ислямът и демокрацията в Турция (Islam and Democracy in Turkey), 16.03.2013

10 De Putter, J, Minidocu: Turkije onder spanning. Verliest premier Erdoğan de macht? (Mini-documentary: Turkey under tension. Is Erdoğan losing the power?), April 2014, De Correspondent.

11 Ayoob, M., Erdoğan’s election victory could be good news for Turkish democracy, The Guardian, 31.03.2014.

12 The Vilayet was the administrative unit at the times of the Ottoman empire, equivalent to Italy’s “regione”.

13 Ishlir, A., Turkish foreign policy in the Erdoğan era, Middle East Monitor, 23.01.2014, accessed on 01.05.2014

14 The Naked Truth of Turkish Politics, Hurriyet Daily News, 31.03.2014,

15 Vick, K., Can Turkey’s Erdoğan Stay in Power?, The TIME, 27.02.2014,

16 Ibid.

17 The Naked Truth of Turkish Politics, Hurriyet Daily News, 31.03.2014, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/analysis-the-naked-truth-of-turkish-politics.aspx?pageID=449&nID=64325&NewsCatID=409)

18 Trembley, P. Who still supports Turkey’s AKP? Al-Monitor, 2nd March 2014

19 And therefore more difficult to predict and control.

20 Ibid.

21 The Economist, Enemies of the state, Mar 17 2012.

22 De Putter, J., Minidocu: Turkije onder spanning. Verliest premier Erdoğan de macht? (Mini-documentary: Turkey under tension. Is Erdoğan losing the power?), April 2014.

23 For example, Yetkin., M. noted: “Here is the naked truth: Half of the corruption claims in any other democratic country would be enough to collapse the government; in Turkey it cost only a 5 point drop in support for Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan in the March 30 local elections.” (The Naked Truth of Turkish Politics, Hurriyet Daily News, 31.03.2014, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/analysis-the-naked-truth-of-turkish-politics.aspx?pageID=449&nID=64325&NewsCatID=409).

24 Credible human rights organizations, such as Human Rights Watch, have documented grave violations of press freedom, freedom of expression and the fundamental rights, such as those of the Kurdish minority, for example.

25 See s2.2 on the importance and relevance of the military in Turkish political life.

West or East: Which way for Ukraine? (January 2014)

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 10:11:08 -0500

In the last days of November 2013, in Vilnius, Lithuania, Ukraine was set to sign a landmark trade agreement with the EU, also known as the Association Agreement (AA). However, only a week before the official signing date, Ukraine’s president Viktor Yanukovich announced that his country is reconsidering its decision and will not sign the AA. Instead, he decided to strengthen and deepen relations with Russia and set the AA aside for the time being.

This essay will endeavour to analyse the factors and reasons that influenced Yanukovich’s decision. It would do so by looking at the Ukraine-Russia and Ukraine-EU relationships, as well as what in my view would likely serve the Ukrainian interests best.

1. Internal political, demographic and economic context

1.1. The political and demographic context of Ukraine

Ukraine gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and has ever since been in a continuous crossroad between West and East. It has always been difficult, if not unthinkable, for any President to only focus on one direction, either west or east, at the expense of the other. This has been the case mostly for political, demographic and economic reasons.

Important to mention in this context is that Ukraine is a multi-ethnic country, the two most significant groups being Ukrainians and Russians. The former live predominantly in the West of the country, and the latter – in the east and south-east, including, notably, the beautiful and strategic Crimean peninsular. The Ukrainians from the west of the country are in their larger part EU-orientated, and the Russian-speaking ones are, naturally, pro-Russian. In this complicated ethnic and religious mosaic, it is a very sensitive topic for any leader of Ukraine whether to set on a pro-EU or pro-Russian path, for this would mean losing a huge part of the votes at home. And presidential elections are just around the corner, due in 2015.

It is in this complicated political and demographic context at home that Yanukovich had to make his choice in late November 2013. On top of this, he had to take into account the most important and absolutely rudimentary element, namely, the economy. For abstract politics and rhetoric is one aspect, but ensuring the country’s economical and financial survival is a very tangible and pressing matter for Ukraine. And the current economic state of Ukraine looks very grim.

1.2. Economic context

Ukraine’s GDP has been steadily declining in the last three years (2011-2012-2013), and so have production output and exports to its two largest export destinations: Russia and the EU. This has led to a steep decrease in revenues, which has prompted the state to borrow profusely. According to July 2013 Central Bank [of Ukraine] data, the sovereign debt of Ukraine was at the staggering $136 billion, facing a debt repayment of more than $60bln in 2015, or a third of the country’s GDP. The list with problems goes on and on, however, the main point here is: The country’s economy is on the edge of catastrophe, on the verge of bankruptcy and default in fact, and only decisive and clear steps would ensure that it stays afloat and, hopefully, grows.

2. The repercussions and prospects of joining the AA

2.1. No duties for import/export

By adhering to the AA and joining the EU’s customs union, Ukraine’s borders would be open for a two-way, customs duty free flow of goods. This is an excellent opportunity for both sides to increase trade. There is, however, one major issue for Ukraine before it could fully benefit from one such move: Standardisation and competitiveness of Ukrainian goods.

To briefly explain what is meant by standardisation, the EU has a policy of very strict standards for products produced/imported within the Union. Should a product not fit within these standards (say, milk or poultry products etc.), they are not allowed into the EU market, thus rendering Ukrainian producers completely unable to compete with their EU counterparts, at least for the time being. The reality on the ground is such that very few production lines in the country are ready to produce within those standards and there is a long way before the whole economy modernises accordingly. In fact, some experts estimate the cost of this modernisation at more than $100bln, money that Ukraine simply does not have at its disposal right now or at any point in the near future.

Therefore, even if Ukraine joined the AA tomorrow, by no means does it mean that Ukrainian products would immediately flow all over the EU, thus boosting the local economy and creating jobs. This, however, does not preclude EU products entering the rather lucrative Ukrainian market of 46mln people. These products will likely undermine the local economy severely, potentially causing loss of business, closure of factories, job loss and many other unpredictable consequences for a country already so deep in an economic crisis.

2.2. Effects on relations with Russia (political and economic)

Russia is more than simply a trade partner. With the free trade zone between the two states, Ukraine’s manufactured goods sell well in Russia because of their competitive prices and superior quality. It has been affirmed by President Putin that, should Ukraine sign the AA (and thus reset its trade tariffs with the EU), this would automatically affect Russia and would lead to the cancellation of the preferential tariffs with Kiev. If these links are severed, thousands will be left jobless as factories and businesses close down.¹ ²

In this context, signing the AA carries some very real and tangible negative consequences for the Ukrainian economy with regard to its Russian ties. Even“The Economist” agrees that, if Russia sticks to its threats, Ukraine will also need substantial financial assistance from the EU to see it through the winter.³ Something that it hardly has to offer at these difficult for the EU times.

3. The repercussions and prospects of getting closer to Russia

Russia, on the other hand, has also been very keen in attracting Ukraine in its sphere of influence. And this is not surprising – the two countries have long-standing cultural, geographical, linguistic, historic and economic ties. In its attempt to hold on to this relationship, Russia has, on its part, also “reached” to Ukraine. In sharp contrast to the EU’s fascinating and enchanting words and promises of free market, free trade, bright future in the happy democratic European family, Russia had quite some tangible and immediate offers on the table.

Firstly, on 17th Dec 2013 in Moscow, Russia purchased Ukrainian state bonds of the value of $15bln, essentially providing a preferential 10-year loan to Ukraine. This gave Ukraine the so-much-needed fresh finance to keep Ukraine afloat.

Secondly, President Putin and President Yanukovich agreed on a significant reduction of the gas price, from $400/1000m³ down to $268.50/1000m³. This was a welcome ease of tension in the gas deals between the two states, particularly in light of the more than $2bln that the Ukrainian state-owned company, Naftogaz, owes to Gazprom for past purchases of natural gas.

Thirdly, Ukraine and Russia signed another 14 agreements in the area of trade and economics, such as agreeing on certain products purchases, easing tariffs for import and other facilitations of the trade between the two states; All steps that would aim at boosting the stock and goods exchange between the two states.

Finally, and to conclude, suffice it to mention the ample and very tangible opportunities that Russia offers to Ukraine for its development. These are not mere words, but immediate assistance and a goodwill to cooperate, as proven on 17th December 2013. Of course, it is not as if Russia offers it all simply because of a goodwill and a warm-heartedness; it most certainly expects that Ukraine would take a pro-Russian stance, and, particularly, that Ukraine would stay away from the EU and, notably, NATO. However, this changes not the fact that Ukraine is given a lot in times of great difficulty.

CONCLUSION

Should Ukraine decide to sign the AA, it would open up the door to many opportunities within the context of the EU. However, these positive effects could only be cashed-in upon in the unforeseeable future. As for the very near future, the EU seems to offer nothing substantive and very little to tackle the urgent economic problems of Ukraine. In fact, not only does it not suggest solutions, it would create more problems and has no prospect of how the Ukrainian economy would deal with them. With many Member States in deep economic crisis, the EU can offer very little of the much, much needed fresh help and finances.

Russia, on its part, has offered Ukraine a most tangible and immediate relief and support, and this is exactly what Ukraine needs at this very moment.

I would therefore wholeheartedly advise President Yanukovich to do exactly as he did, because this serves the interest of his country best.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1) ‘Don’t humiliate Ukraine’: President defiant over EU deal proposals, 27.11.2013, http://rt.com/news/ukraine-eu-yanukovich-protest-368/

2) Kiselinchev, Ch., Защо ЕС загуби мача с Русия? (Why did EU lose against Russia?), 02.01.2014, as quoted in online edition “www.dnes.bg”,

3) Putin: EU blackmailing Ukraine over halt in trade deal 22.11.2013, http://rt.com/news/putin-eu-ukraine-blackmail-151/

4) Reznik, I., Russia Offers Ukraine Cheaper Gas to Join Moscow-Led Group, 02.12.2013 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-12-02/russia-offers-ukraine-cheaper-gas-to-join-moscow-led-group-1

5) Western Diplomats Are Going to Disappoint Ukraine’s Protesters, 13.12.2013, http://world.time.com/2013/12/13/western-diplomats-are-going-to-dissapoint-ukraines-protesters/

6) Zavadski, K., SHOULD UKRAINE JOIN THE EU? AS PROTESTS CONTINUE, HERE’S WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING IN UKRAINE, 15.12.2013, accessed via http://www.bustle.com/articles/9886-should-ukraine-join-the-eu-as-protests-continue-heres-whats-been-happening-in-ukraine

1 Putin: EU blackmailing Ukraine over halt in trade deal 22.11.2013, http://rt.com/news/putin-eu-ukraine-blackmail-151/

2 Zavadski, K., SHOULD UKRAINE JOIN THE EU? AS PROTESTS CONTINUE, HERE’S WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING IN UKRAINE, 15.12.2013

3 The Economist, Paper Edition, 03.10.2013, ‘West or East’, accessed via

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21587228-european-union-should-sign-deal-ukrainebut-only-if-yulia-tymoshenko-freed-west-or

Why Syria really matters (September 2013)

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 10:08:20 -0500

Introduction

“Military option is not off the table”, “Military action against Syria”; “Surgical strikes against the government in Damascus”, “Teach the thug Dr. Bashar al-Assad a lesson”, “Limited strikes to deter a monster, the new Hitler, from using chemical weapons again”.

These are just part of the firm and menacing statements that have been coming out from Washington and others since the alleged attack with chemical weapons in al-Ghouta area, east of the Syrian capital Damascus on 21st August 2013. Necessary and urgent, they argue. Others, like Russia, oppose the move for various reasons, among which the lack of clear evidence, the unpredictability of such an action and perspectives of drawing the entire region into an extremely dangerous and unstable situation.

The situation now appears to have calmed down with the latest Russian initiative to put the Syrian chemical weapons stockpile under international control. However, the US was extremely close to launching a unilateral military action and has now made it very clear that they do not take the military option off the table.

I argue that such a move would be an inconceivable catastrophe.

I write the current article because I sense an alarming reality if the US is to ever launch unilateral strikes against Syria.

Writing my current piece, I remain aware that I am no deep expert in the internal issues of the countries in the region; nor do I claim to have THE answer to the Syrian crisis. All I share are my views which I have gathered throughout extensive and continuous research and by closely following events.

I believe that Syria matters to all of us right now, regardless of whether you are Syrian, Jordanian, Israeli, Turkish, American, British or any other nationality.

Structure

In the first part of my article, I shall outline the (recent) historical, political and strategic context of the crisis. In the second part I shall explain the consequences of any foreign intervention in view of the very same context.

I. HISTORICAL AND POLITICAL CONTEXT

How did it all begin?

In March 2011, in the time of the “Arab Spring”, protests broke out in various Syrian cities.

Why? Well, let us have a quick look at Syria right before the unrest began in March 2011.

No doubt, Syria could not have qualified in any way as a ‘democracy’ or a 'free’ country in the Western sense. It has virtually been a one-party (Syrian Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party at the forefront) state for more than 40 years. There should be no illusion: Syria would most certainly qualify in the description of a police state. For what I have researched, one could be in trouble for simply expressing opinion, or for open affinity to the “wrong” party/ideology, get fired or even arrested. The security apparatus was ubiquitous. Administration and bureaucracy is highly over-floated and corruption was and still is literally everywhere, at all levels.

There was no real elections, or constitution.. The President, Dr. Bashar al-Assad, was voted on a referendum, being the only candidate – with 97%. Well, hardly any competition or choice, one might argue.

And the list goes on… But what I want to underline here is:

Syria pre-2011 was by no means a paradise on earth in terms of politics, freedoms and rights, to say the least.

The need for reform was clear and, arguably, urgent.

Protests going violent

It is said that the first city to revolt was Dara'a, in the south, in mid-March 2011. Firstly, the protest was mostly peaceful. Varying reports claim that government forces opened random fire at unarmed protesters from the very first days¹. The government has denied any such allegations and sustains that no fire was opened on peaceful protesters but only response to attacks from armed men. Where the truth lays I cannot say for certain, as I was not there personally and am bound to be unable to establish this with a certainty beyond any reasonable doubt. What is clear, though, is that there was social energy and need for a change. And it cannot be denied, those were and still are most legitimate calls.

However, the peaceful and reasonable calls for change could be said to have been immediately 'backed’ by violence and from the first days of the uprising, there have been armed men and casualties on both sides, which suggest a quick spillover from “peaceful protest” to armed activity on both sides from the very early stages.²

Syria’s complicated religious and ethnicity jigsaw

Not many countries are as ethnically and religiously diverse as Syria. It is home to approximately 10% Christians, 10% Kurds, some 10 to 15% Alawites (an offshoot of Shia Islam, the sect of Dr Bashar al-Assad), and a majority Sunni population. Further, there are also some sizable Druze, Jewish and Armenian minorities, among others.

In brief: governing and securing the complicated ethnic mosaic of Syria would not be an easy-peasy job for anyone.

One thing must be admitted about the ruling Arab Socialist Ba'ath party and President al-Assad: Syria is a secular state where everyone could freely exercise any religion. Prior to the war, I am being told by some good Syrian friends of mine, no one would have ever asked whether you were Sunni, Alawi, Christian, or whatever. One was Syrian. And there was a reasonable degree of stability, security and peace for any of the minorities.

Today in Syria there are hundreds, if not thousands, of different rebel armed factions, many of whom with extremist and Takfiri ideology. Such are Jabhat al-Nusra, an offshoot of Al-Quaeda, and the Islamic State for Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), with some commentators defining them as 'the most efficient forces fighting against Dr al-Assad’s government’. The Christians of Syria, for example, mostly support the government and is perhaps not because they are particular supporters of President al-Assad or his Party’s policies. It has a lot to do with a fear that a scenario in which extremists take over or chaos ensues, they will be in the gravest of dangers. Something not so unthinkable when they just look across the border and see what happened to the Christians of Iraq following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 (an invasion in violation of international law and without a UN sanction, by the way).

To summarise: the reality is that if the Syrian government was to fall or was forced out by bombs, few could guarantee what would happen to the complicated ethnic jigsaw of the Syrian society.

The opposition

Like in any country, there is not a unitary, one single opposition against the current ruling government.

Nowhere could this be more true than Syria. Hundreds of groups fight on the ground, not to mention the political side (with its innate disagreements and infightings) – the Syrian National Council (SNC). The SNC is an organisation based in Turkey and run mostly by Syrian ex-pats, sponsored and supported by the West and some regional players.

Either way, it is the case that there is hardly anyone who could stand up and claim that he or she has a reasonable and sufficient command and control of the “opposition” armed groups on the ground. Not to mention the Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS, who take no orders from anyone and are thought to be the strongest fighting force among rebel groups. In fact, the al-Nusra front recently executed one of the top commanders of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighting the government of the Syrian Arab Republic. Skirmishes between jihadists and FSA are not rare and the jihadists now openly oppose the more moderate elements.

This leads to the clear conclusion that, were the government of Syria to collapse, there is absolutely no guarantee that anyone could take the matters in control and form a stable government, let alone ensure the safety of all the sects and ethnic groups.

Demonisation of a single man

We hear it so so often: “Criminal”, “dictator”, Brutal dictator, “Assad is a criminal”, “Assad’s army”, “Assad's” this, Assad’s that… Looking from the outside, one might as well think that in Syria, everything is about Dr Bashar al-Assad. As in, he is everywhere and everything, in any second. He is all of it. Equating an entire country of 23 million people to one man. Syria = Dr Bashar al-Assad. An occurrence seen over and over again in almost every conflict, demonising and equalising to one man, e.g. “Saddam is a terrorist/dictator/tyrant/[etc.]”. And this is not to get the Syrian government off the hook. No, they certainly have a long list of crimes to account for.

But Syria is not Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian Army is not “Bashar al-Assad’s army”. No, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) belongs to the Syrian people. For anyone interested, it might be curious to know that the SAA corps are comprised of all the ethnicities, layers and sects within the Syrian society.

Regional context

What happens in Syria is not at all about Syria only. The entire region is on the verge of a very big fire that could hardly be extinguished. Syria is, among other things, the battle ground of a nasty proxy war and major geo-political interests and considerations by many players. They all have their reasons.

Either way, it must be crystal clear that the Syrian crisis is not about Syria only. It is not even about Dr Bashar al-Assad. Not at all.

The Persian Gulf states

On one side, there are the Persian Gulf states (Qatar and Saudi Arabia mostly), who are among the most generous sponsors of funds and weapons to the rebels. This, of course, could hardly have anything to do with a push for democracy and human rights on their part, there is just something not genuine in such 'motives’, it is a joke-like idea. That is, Saudi Arabia, for instance, is a dark-age feudal theocratic autocracy, ruled by a ruthless monarch. No, such nation can definitely not claim to be supporting democracy and human rights, thus, we definitely cannot talk about it being a true reason for intervention. It has nothing to do with Dr Bashar al-Assad, nor with freedoms and rights.

These states fund and arm armed groups against the Syrian government for various reasons, inter alia, the close ties it has with Iran, the strongest Shia state in the region, (Saudi Arabia and Qatar are mostly Sunni). They want to see themselves as the honourable and deserving 'front-liners’ of Islam and leaders in the region. A defiant Iran (and Syria) in this context, is a thorn in the sight for the Persian Gulf states.

Further, there is a new gas pipeline project from Iran through Iraq and ending into Syria and the Mediterranean coast. This would be a huge competition for Qatar, for example, who has one of the largest gas reserves in the world and is looking for potential ways to bring it to the European markets. What is the shortest way for a potential pipeline? The answer lies in a quick check of the map.

There are further reasons, but my point is: as far as Saudi Arabia and Qatar are concerned, this is not about President al-Assad, nor is it about democracy and human rights. These states are following strictly personal agendas.

Iran

Iran is a key player in the current crisis. It has not many allies in the Arab world, and Syria is definitely its strongest one. For Iran, Syria is an absolutely rudimentary element in their support for Hezbollah, and in their opposition to Israel. Syria is at such a strategically important location (located on the Mediterranean, bordering Israel and Lebanon) that for Iran to lose such an ally would mean an end to the support (at least logistically) to Hezbollah and the Palestinian cause. It would also significantly diminish their leverage against Israel. The list goes on with other geo-strategic goals of Iran related to Syria.

Iran would surely do its absolute best to support the Syrian government.

Israel

For Israel, Syria has been a pain in the neck for quite a while. It is geographically too close to Israel itself (and Lebanon/Hezbollah), and it is 'uncomfortably’ allied to Israel’s biggest foes: Iran and Hezbollah. The current Syrian government is not under the (indirect) control of neither the Americans nor the Israelis, which makes it all the more difficult to effectively exert pressure. The way they choose to do it is by unilaterally conducting air strikes against the Syrian Army which the IDF has done on numerous occasions in the last 1 year.

On the other hand though, Israel is confronted with another danger: Dr Bashar al-Assad’s government could be called everything, but it is mostly predictable. As in, it is extremely unlikely that Syria would ever, in its right mind, attack Israel. Were the Syrian government to fall, Libyan-style chaos would most likely ensue, with strong extremist element and Al-Quaeda presence. This is a much more undesired state of affairs than the current one. Therefore, Israel is trapped in quite a complicated puzzle, and this explains why Israel has not been so adamant on the “Assad must step down” rhetoric.

Turkey

Turkey has been an absolutely essential element in the entire Syrian crisis. It has contributed enormously to the war effort of the rebels. Turkey provides direct and indirect logistical and other support to endless amounts of rebels infiltrating from Turkey into Syria. The reason?

Well, not just one, but perhaps it could be summed up that Turkey likes to see itself as the growing power both in the Middle East as well as in the Balkans (and in fact, in many ex-Ottoman dominions). It also is a close ally of the US and a NATO member. Further, Islamist Prime minister of Turkey Erdogan likes to see himself as the new ruler of the Middle east, establish authority and “strength”. Dr Bashar al-Assad even qualified him as the new “Caliph”. Whether this is the case is arguable, but it certainly is the case that Turkey’s influence in the current crisis is absolutely crucial and essential.

Turkey also has a particularly sensitive topic: the Kurds. Dr Bashar al-Assad decided soon after outbreak of the insurgency to withdraw units of the Syrian Arab Army from most of the North-east Kurdish lands, effectively making them an autonomous region. They are a considerable force to be recognised. Matching this with the Iraqi autonomous region of Kurdistan, this poses a great threat to the Kurdish question of Turkey, just across the volatile borders of the region.

Erdogan has recently stated that he is “ready to enter Syria also by ground forces” and he was even amassing troops on the border. This is the bravest call from anyone so far involved, even the US loudly claiming: no boots on the ground. Surely, not all about altruism, human rights or democracy.

On a quick note, in my view Erdogan has somehow failed to observe the reality that what he is doing is to pour petrol onto the burning flames of his neighbour. Sooner or later the fire will definitely spread.

The West

The West, particularly the US and the UK, remain extremely close to their long-term ally and protégé in the region: Israel. It is Israel’s interest they would defend before all.

Further, it is also about the fact that exerting influence upon the Syrian government is virtually impossible, as in, it is not a puppet state. Pre-2011, Syria had virtually no national debt, and it was not a member of either the World Bank or the IMF. Adding to this its close ties with ever-inconvenient Iran, it is no wonder that the West would naturally dislike Dr Bashar al-Assad and would ideally like to see him out of the place. And this is not about the person, Bashar al-Assad, it is about the defiance of Syria as a state.

Further, it is about geo-strategic interests and dominance. If the West is to topple Dr Assad, or help to topple his government that is not under their control and install a marionette state, such as Libya or Kosovo, then its influence in the Middle East would grow significantly, having only one more country to 'take care’ for after Syria: Iran.

Russia

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world was turning into a sort of a hegemony lead by the West that “won the cold war”. Russia, on the other hand, was on the verge of economic, territorial and political collapse. In this context, it was not difficult for the US to become the world’s 'rightful and deserved’ policeman, as the 'winner of the Cold war, the better system’.

This has now effectively come to an end, particularly since Putin re-took power again in 2012, most visibly on the international arena. The Libyan fiasco of 2011 is to never be repeated again, Putin stated. Moreover, Syria is not just any country for Russia. The ties between the two states originate back in the 60s. Russia has been supplying Syria with various weaponry and equipment, the economic and cultural ties are too strong. There are thousands of Syrian-Russian families as well. Some have speculated that Russia’s support for Syria is only because of Russia’s naval base at the strategic port of Tartous, on the Syrian Mediterranean coast (a small facility, it is a reload/repair location, and could hardly be called a naval military stronghold). I argue the context is much broader, and ultimately, it has to do with Russia’s influence in the Middle East, but also very much to do with the wider international context. Russia’s stance on the international arena is at stake in Syria too. This is too much to allow for and just let go.

With Russia rising so strongly and opposing the USA (very much so in terms of law, concerning the UN Security Council resolution votes), it has become clear to the US that it could no longer so easily be the policemen of the world and act abroad at will, “because we can”.

Crucially, for Russia growing extremism in the region poses a direct threat to its national interests. Looking on the map again, the distance between Syria and the Caucasus is not very large at all, and a further problem is that there are reports of a large number of Chechens fighting jihad against the government of Syria. Surely, Russia’s eyes would be close on the activities of those individuals.

There seems to be a difficulty in appreciating the reality that the US is no more the single, most exceptional hegemonic power in the world. This has brought US/Russia stand-off to a new level, unseen since the Cold war.

II. “INTERVENTION IN SYRIA”: THE WAY TO HELL

I have now taken quite some time to outline some of the most significant players and factors that are playing an important role in the ongoing Syrian crisis. I deemed it as necessary for the purpose of being able to put the above words of aggression and military intervention into context and to effectively dissect them into what the actual implications today might be. Not just taking words or events out of their context, as nothing in the Syria’s terrible suffering is an isolated case.

The casus belli: the chemical attack of 21stt August in al-Ghouta, Damascus countryside.

What we heard from all sides was that the 'monstrous and disgusting regime in Damascus has used chemical weapons against its own people. On those grounds, we are going to teach them a lesson and carry out strikes, as the world cannot stand by.’

Great, OK, fair enough! One crucial problem though: there is no irrefutable evidence.

We heard John Kerry and other US politicians using “reports”, “information from credible intelligence sources” and “we strongly believe”. The pure fact is, no one could show to us, the mortals, a single piece of undeniable evidence.

For the sake of probability, let us for a second imagine that the Syrian president, Dr Bashar al-Assad and “his army” did order the use of chemical weapons. Now, let’s also imagine that this was a court of law, where, of course, the presumption of innocence exists, and the guilt must be proven. The prosecutor states: “He or she is guilty of a heinous crime!” Then follows an accusation, trying and conviction. However, without a crucial part: an undeniable evidence, beyond any reasonable doubt. Is this really how it works? Can we convict without evidence? My answer is: this is unthinkable and simply illegal.

Furthermore, what exactly might the motive of Dr Bashar al-Assad be to use chemical weapons in his own capital where he lives himself, and, moreover, knowing that UN inspectors are 5-10km away? This would be utterly suicidal for him politically, militarily and, very likely – physically. It makes no sense at all. He is not silly or stupid, that is for sure.

Then, lacking clear evidence or motive, how on earth are we supposed to back and accept a military intervention based on “credible sources”? Are these sources just as credible as those of the Iraq invasion of 2003? Sorry, Mr Cameron, Mr Obama, but we have seen that film already. Not again.

Legality of a strike

In 1945 following the disastrous World War II, virtually all nations agreed upon the slogan: “never again”. They bid on the hope that, by creating the UN with its Charter, war would become unthinkable. Therefore, this beautiful document called the UN Charter, has very clearly provided for when force may be used.

Self-defence (i.e. a State is attacked illegally by another State, then there is the right to respond with force);
Through a sanction of the UN Security Council.

Statements have been made by the White House and top US officials, including Nobel Peace Prize Barack Hussain Obama, that they would not seek UN Security Council support for a strike on Syria. This has been the case even after the chemical weapons deal from September 2013 (under which Syria would cede its stockpiles under international control) with the US stating clearly that force is still in the list of options. Obama even said that, should the Congress approve military action, that would be enough. This is a treacherous and extremely dangerous challenge to the UN as an institution, and to the whole world order as we know it.

Should the US take positive steps towards a military strike, this would be a wholly defiance of the standing international order. This would set a dangerous trend and render the UN all but obsolete. This would mean we are going into a new international order, a new era, and it is not quite clear, how would it look like.

Opening Pandora’s box

It is probably not so difficult to order a Tomahawk cruise missile strike in the direction of Damascus. And then? What exactly is the final strategic purpose, the objective of such a strike(s)? We do not have motive/evidence, we do not have legality for such a strike. And the consequences may be dire for all.

The war rhetoric of top US officials after 21st August 2013 went too far. The US was seemingly too far to revert. Were it not for the rather unexpected and surprising for almost all chemical weapons deal initiated by President Vladimir Putin, it could as well have been the case that missiles and bombs would be (illegally) 'travelling’ to Damascus today. Luckily, this was reverted in an almost last hope / second move.

As for the US, instead of spending millions on a missile, they could surely find better use in terms of in aid for the dire, catastrophic humanitarian situation in Syria and its neighbours.

The last thing Syria needs right now is more blood. How could one stop a conflict with more weapons and escalation? Makes no sense.

Escalation

In case of strike, Syria would have the legitimacy and legal ground to respond with a counter-strike on the US and its regional bases. It is unthinkable to imagine what would happen if Iran and/or Israel was involved too. Then we would be engulfed in an open-ended conflict with unimaginable repercussions that would change the shape of the whole Middle East, if not the whole world.

Why this all matters to all of us?

I shall point three reasons, but there surely are many others:

1, Refugees and the humanitarian catastrophe

The number of Syrian refugees is growing as we speak, estimates put the internally displaced at 5 million, and those who were forced to flee outside of it at about 2 million. Most of these are in the neighbouring countries, posing an enormous social, political and financial burden on the surrounding countries. Some of those countries, such as Lebanon, have already a long list of problems to solve already and a very fragile socio-political orders.

The refugee crisis, however, does not stop with the surrounding countries. For example, in the last 1.5 months, in a small and poor country called Bulgaria, more than 1,000 Syrians crossed the border illegally. Bulgaria could neither provide for them in the short-run, nor offer any sustainable integration plan. And there are more and more destitute Syrians coming every day.

Escalating the conflict would deteriorate the humanitarian disaster and render it a true catastrophe.

2. Extremism

Very disturbing. There are reports that hundreds, if not thousands, of European nationals are 'fighting jihad’ against the secular government of Syria. What would these people do when they come home? They surely will not just sit home and calmly look after their gardens.

Further, who can guarantee that among the thousands of refugees that enter illegally there will not be any Al-Quaeda-linked elements? It only takes one for a suicide attack, God forbid.

3. Unpredictable consequences

No one could say what the consequences of escalation would be. There are many aspects: military, humanitarian, rise of extremism in the region, but also very much economic: the price of oil would likely surge, which would inevitably have a massive domino effect, affecting each and all of us. In essence, there would be dire consequences not just for the region, but across the entire world.

CONCLUSION

In this article, I have attempted to present why I believe anything but a political solution to the Syrian crisis would be more than disastrous. I have also tried to make it clear why I am absolutely convinced that the least likely solution would be any military intervention.

I also hope to have helped raise awareness of why the Syrian issue truly matters to all of us and that it should not be just a quick report on the news.

I sincerely hope for an internal political solution to this shockingly and painfully long and destructive conflict. I underline internal; Syrian issues must be left to the Syrian people to resolve. Not the US, not Russia, not Iran, not the Persian gulf states. Democracy is not a tool you install in a place with a bombing campaign or a military intervention. How the Syrians want to live in their country is entirely up to them, and this is a long and comprehensive internal process.

And I sincerely hope that the bloodbath would come to an end as soon as possible. There are no winners in this disgusting war, the biggest losers, however, certainly are the ordinary Syrian people and this is why the message of peace is so crucial, as opposed to escalation and warmongering.

And I hope that I have succeeded at conveying at least a small part of this message.

Sources:

1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oC55uPBKYqU

2 http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/143026#.UWwdBasac5

What’s going on in Bulgaria? (March 2013)

Fri, 10 Mar 2017 10:00:50 -0500

WHAT’S GOING ON IN BULGARIA?

In the last month events from Bulgaria have circulated the national and international press, claiming that high energy bills brought people to the streets. Many of my loved ones and friends asked me: “What’s going on in Bulgaria”? The issue is much bigger than simply energy bills. Therefore, to answer this question thoroughly, I need to give an insight into the context and the bigger picture leading to the protests.

How did it all start: short-term causes

In early February this year, after receiving an unusually high bill for the month of December/January, a lady from Blagoevgrad (south-west Bulgaria), called Lyudmila MANOVA, shared on her Facebook that she had an unusually high bill. Other friends started commenting and sharing. Spontaneously, people realised that all of them had very high bills for this month and they organised for a gathering of around 2,000 people outside the office of the energy company (the exclusive monopolist for western Bulgaria – ČEZ, a Czech state-owned energy company that privatised the sector nearly 9 years ago).

The crowd went out of control and, although no violence erupted, they did not obey police orders. MANOVA, identified as “the organiser” for the purpose of police rules, was arrested for a brief period. Her arrest immediately went viral on all media and social media and sparked a nationwide fury over the arrest itself, but also sympathy to the cause. As a result, the social media organised a nationwide protest for 10th February, Sunday. Llarge amounts of people gathered on a civilised, non-violent protest against the high energy bills and the monopolists energy companies.

The quick spill-over: long-term causes

By 10th February, the popular energy was out on the streets, the genie was out of the bottle. For most people protesting, the link between the high electricity bills and the long-term status quo in the country was something apparent. That is, the total destruction of the nation for the last 23 years since socialist system in Bulgaria collapsed. The list is long. To mention a few of the long-term issues of our country:

Extremely low income: minimum salary in Bulgaria is 310 leva, or around 165 Euros, average salary is around 350-400 Euros per month.
Criminal “privatisation”. Since the collapse of socialism, endless number of NGOs, economists, political and non-political analysts have flooded the public spectrum with the mantra of: “The state is per definition a bad owner”, “Privatise immediately and now” etc. And it did happen. Privatisation in Bulgaria has largely meant: very dodgy deals of often huge and lucrative state-owned assets (factories or companies) sold to dodgy buyers in non-transparent ways, whereby corrupt officials sell huge assets to the “right” circles of people for very low prices.

In a similar way, for no obvious economic reasons, the profit-making state-owned electricity provider was privatised in 2004. Since then, electricity prices have risen with more than doubled or even tripled.

Economy has been going down to zero, there is virtually no production. In the last 23 years, more than 2,200 factories closed or “privatised”.
This has meant that numerous jobs were lost, especially in the countryside.
Joblessness and lack of opportunities have lead to serious depopulation of entire regions and an enormous exodus of people, emigrating either to the large cities or abroad. The population of Bulgaria in 1989, at the collapse of socialism, was almost 9mln people. Currently, it stands below 7 million, around 6.9 million. This is a decrease of 2mln people in just over 20 years, or almost 25%. Some experts rightfully call it a demographic catastrophe. No war or disaster in the history of this country has lead to such a catastrophe.
…

The list is very, very long.

Thus, the high electricity bills at the end of January were simply the very last drop that made the glass spill. A glass that was already absolutely full. Therefore, portraying these as “protests against high energy bills” is a gross over-simplification that does not take the essential background into account, the very context in which these protests erupted.

“Non-partisanism of protests”

There is one underlying, constant element of all protests in all cities: the non-partisan nature of these protests. People came out to the streets against an entire system. People are tired from 23 years of promises. Parties from the entire political gamma have switched in the last 23 years of “democracy” in Bulgaria: left, right, centre, right, left, again, right, centre… The direction, however, has seemed to remain all the same: a one-way free-fall to low income, high living costs, unbearable social conditions, extremely low pensions, “privatisation”, and a political class that has seemed to only become richer and covered in corruption.

“Protest every day”

Throughout almost entire month of February, people gathered in Sofia, Varna, Plovdiv, Burgas and all other major cities to express their discontent with how the country was being run in the last 23 years. Some ministers came out to explain that “checks and audits into the electricity companies WILL begin soon”. This could hardly do anything to calm the protesters down. On the contrary, it raised question as to: where was the State so far to control them? Are you really beginning the audits just now?

It was not enough. Protesters united in their demands of withdrawal of the licences of the electricity companies (ČEZ (Czech), EVN (Austrian) and “Energo-pro” (Czech)) and, ultimately, their nationalisation. However, ministers made it categorically clear: “No nationalisation is possible.” Again, they reiterated that checks and audits will begin soon.

This, naturally, could hardly calm protesters down.

“Turning point”

On Sunday 17th February, more than 100,000 people went out in over 35 cities across the country, making this the largest protests in the country since January 1997. The revolutionary energy could be felt everywhere, the country was shaken by an enormous wave of peaceful protests. This weekend, the Prime Minister, Boyko Borissov, usually on TV almost every day, speaking “modestly” of the “enormous success” of his government, was nowhere to be seen. It turned out that on Sunday, he played football with some friends. Fair enough.

None of the main officials came up on TV (with the notable exception of poor economics minister, put to the forefront as a media scapegoat) or any media for 3 (three) days. Something big was going to happen, this was the sentiment in the air.

A huge protest on 17th February. Picture taken from Varna. Source: PIK news agency

On Tuesday 20th February, after 3 days of silence, the prime minister Boyko Borissov organised a press-conference. He was asked whether he would resign, something he denied vigorously.

On the table, next to him, was a lady, called Daniela PELOVSKA, which was presented as “the representative of the protesters”. A lady no one had ever seen at any protests, all of a sudden, appeared on TV as the “uniting” figure. She claimed to have a list of claims of “the protesters”. Journalists quickly checked on their tablets and smartphones: it turned out the lady is a millionaire businesswoman, who never participated in any of the protests, and her two children work for the ruling party in different local authorities.

Therefore, the attempt of the prime minister to calm down the protests and present himself as “accepting the demands of the protesters” was highly counter-productive. People were totally disgusted by this cheap Balkan circus and a lame attempt to manipulate public opinion. This time, however, unsuccessful, thanks to the Internet and the social media. People remained informed and pressure on the prime-minister was huge.

The fall of the government

On the night of 19th February, after the press-conference of Boyko Borissov, a protest turned violent. Starting as a peaceful gathering of people, all of a sudden, some football hooligans entered the protest and started provoking the police and the police answered accordingly. Stones were thrown, clashes and arrests ensued. One man had his head completely covered in blood. His image circulated all national and international media.

A man with a head covered in blood, Sofia, 19th Feb. Source: Rozali.com

On the next morning, the Prime Minister came to Parliament to announce that he and his government were resigning as he “could not watch blood upon the asphalt in the city centre of Sofia” and that “Having a parliament constantly encircled by police fences and riot police was not normal. […] We were given the power by the people, today we return it back to them”. (Sounds noble, doesn’t it.)

A man with a head covered in blood, Sofia, 19th Feb 2013. Source: Rozali.com

On the next day, the Parliament accepted his resignation . The protests had made a government collapse.

Life after Boyko Borissov and the ruling GERB party

There we were, Bulgaria had no government. The Prime Minister had fallen.

Protests, however, continued. The media, the political class and elite seemed deaf to the real issue: this is not about ousting one government/party and replacing it with another. This is about this same one-way street to catastrophe that ALL political parties had been leading the nation to in the last 23 years of “democracy”.

As a result, protests did not stop. Every day, they continued. At the end of the day, not a single one of the demands of the protesters were met or heard. Boyko Borissov simply resigned, leaving all the issues at stake unsolved.

Enormous rallies took place on 25th February and the largest so far, probably, on the 3rd March (which is also the National holiday for the Liberation of Bulgaria from the Ottoman empire, end of Russo-Turkish war, 3rd March 1878)

“Bulgaria” written in Cyrillic with people, Varna, 3rd March 2013. Source: Bulgariaoggi.com

On top, there are 4 people who set themselves on fire to date. Three of them died, one of them is in critical condition in hospital. All in desperation against the status quo in Bulgaria. Media tries to play down the importance of this act of ultimate desperation by claiming they are “mentally insane”, but they clearly sent a strong message: Something is just not right here.

“Why keep protesting?”

Media, political analysts, shows, programmes etc. kept questioning the movement. Media seemed desperate to find a leader, a list of demands, to somehow confine the protesters in the terms they are used to; they asked, why don’t the protesters create a political party and run for the elections… They were trying to somehow put it into a box.

But this case is different. This gigantic pressure that has been gathering and impending upon an entire nation was finally unleashed with huge force. An explosion. A huge energy that HAD to leave, to come out. A nation sick of its ruling class and status quo. A resignation in this context meant nothing of significance.

Elements of the movement

Horizontal: protesters, “organisers” and “leaders” alike are adamant that this is not a political party speaking, this is not a movement that seeks a certain political party in power. This is a horizontal movement, where everyone can speak, participate, express discontent, simply come out and speak. Media and analysts have been critical, asking “who is your leader”, the answer: “We are here and stand behind ideas, not people”.
Social media and the Internet: A huge strength and advantage to the recent protests. Attempts to compromise the movement, to manipulate, to undermine the movement.. People are not silly anymore, they have Internet, where censorship is impossible.
Non-violent: At the very beginning, there was a campaign: “Give the police a hug and flower”

Source: kliuki.bg

Source: btv.bg

The police, as a result, has mostly been very tolerant to protesters. At the end of the day, they also have the high bills, we live in the same country.

What’s next?

The protests continue nationwide, every Sunday. I went to the protests on Sunday and I must admit, the energy was somewhat lower, in terms of numbers at least, not as many as before. However, the energy remains there. It is not so easy to change an entire system. Those on top, who have a lot to lose, will hold on to what they have and will fight back vigorously. There will be a huge opposition.

On Tuesday 12th March, the president appointed an expert cabinet with new faces that people have hardly ever seen. Their mandate is until the next elections take place (12th May). It remains to be seen what their policy will be. However, I have many indications to believe that the times ahead will be vibrant. The social tension is huge and the caretaker government, if it fails to deliver, will be swept away by other protest waves. I am afraid a long-term political crisis is highly likely to happen in Bulgaria.